Farm Sentiment Slips in June Amid Trade Uncertainty
Farmer sentiment took a step back in June, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. After two months of improvement, the barometer fell 12 points to 146, driven largely by a sharp decline in producers’ outlook for the future. The Index of Future Expectations dropped 18 points, signaling growing unease, especially around agricultural exports.
Trade Concerns Erode Confidence
One of the biggest factors dragging down sentiment is producer concern over trade. The percentage of farmers expecting increased ag exports over the next five years fell from 52% in May to 41% in June. Meanwhile, more producers now expect exports to decline. Worries over U.S. trade policy and tariffs persist, though fewer respondents now see a "very negative" impact compared to earlier this year.
Only 31% of farmers strongly agree that free trade benefits agriculture, a notable drop from 49% in 2020.
Financial Outlook Dips Slightly, But Investment Sentiment Improves
The Farm Financial Performance Index dipped 5 points to 104, reflecting a modest pullback in optimism for 2025. Still, with the index above 100, most farmers expect better financial conditions than last year, particularly supported by strength in the livestock sector.
Interestingly, the Farm Capital Investment Index rose to 60, its highest in two months. More farmers (24%) believe now is a good time to invest, but this optimism doesn’t seem to extend to machinery purchases. Over half (54%) still plan to reduce equipment buys compared to last year.
Farmland Values: Holding Steady
The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index slipped 4 points to 120. Fewer farmers (32%) expect values to rise, but the majority (56%) now anticipate values to hold steady, suggesting stable land prices in the short term.
Bright Spot: Income Forecast for 2025
Despite the dip in sentiment, the USDA’s Economic Research Service projects a strong rebound in farm income. Net cash farm income is forecast to rise nearly 19% to $193.7 billion in 2025, driven in part by a major increase in disaster-related government payments under the American Relief Act of 2025. Net farm income is also expected to jump 26%, though both metrics remain below 2022's record highs.
Takeaway for Row Crop Producers
While near-term financial and investment indicators remain relatively stable, shifting expectations around exports and trade policy are clearly weighing on the longer-term outlook. Still, with support coming from projected income growth and steady land values, there's room for cautious optimism as planning for 2026 gets underway.